Denktash insincere

‘Insincere’ Denktash

The American Magazine ‘The National Interest’, considered to be one of the premier US journals in the field of international affairs, recently published an article on Cyprus, in the Winter 2001-2002 issue. The report titled ‘Cyprus: The predictable crisis’ is an in-depth analysis of the scenarios regarding the Cyprus issue and the potential dangers to American interests should the issue remain unresolved by the time of Cyprus’ accession to the EU.

According to the article, Denktash’s repeated abandonment of negotiations and refusal to engage into meaningful dialog re-enforced the perception that his participation in the negotiating process has never really been sincere. The opinion that the Greek Cypriots have been more willing to pursue a political settlement than the Turkish side and that the Greek Cypriots should not be punished for Turkish intransigence has been strengthened in Europe and elsewhere. Denktash’s stance makes it very difficult for the EU to do anything but include Cyprus in its ranks.

The procrastination of the dispute could lead to a major regional conflict if there is no settlement prior to Cyprus’s imminent accession to the EU by 2004. Turkey will most likely go ahead with its threat to annex the northern occupied part of Cyprus, further alienating it from Europe and generally worsening its domestic political conditions. The resulting crisis could lead to the permanent division of the island, a deep rupture between Turkey and Europe and a possible military confrontation between two NATO members, Greece and Turkey. Both countries’ interests would be irreversibly damaged, with Turkey’s costs being greater and its chances of ever joining Europe totally destroyed.

The authors call for American policy makers not to dismiss Cyprus as an unnecessary irritant but instead push hard for a political settlement before accession. Failure to deal with this would leave the United States caught between its desire to promote a wider and more prosperous Europe and its inclination to stand by its Turkish friends.

The United States should not try to dissuade the EU from fulfilling its promise to accept Cyprus as this would force Greece to veto the enlargement process and create tension within the ranks of Europe.

Interestingly, the article claims that further unrest in the occupied areas, the departure of Denktash, the flight of Turkish Cypriots, a political change in Ankara and new and more tempting offers from Greek Cypriots could conceivably lead to an agreement. The framework of the European Union, with its enforceable regulations on human rights, property and individual security may make practical a sort of political arrangement not possible before.

The United States should need to do all it can to make Turkey and Greece see clearly the costs of a crisis and the advantages of avoiding one. They should discourage Turkey from annexing the occupied north or otherwise raising tensions in case of Cyprus’ accession prior to a settlement. Washington should make clear to Ankara that it would be obliged to denounce such a step and to support the UN Security Council Resolution condemning it and that Congress could adopt further sanctions against Turkey. The US must also make clear to Ankara that despite its heightened importance in the post September 11 environment, Brussels and Washington are not prepared to retreat from long-standing positions on European Union enlargement

Finally, the US should work with the EU, Greece and the Greek Cypriots to develop an accession strategy that holds the door open to Turkish Cypriots and thus provides incentives for a political solution.

Lobby for Cyprus calls on the US and EU to help end the division of Cyprus, for the return of all suffering refugees to their homes, in a free, united and European Cyprus, without occupation troops and colonists and with the human and legal rights of all Cypriots safeguarded.